Plenty more dry and sunny weather on the way, but cooler for a time

As weather forecasts go, this looks pretty much straight-forward this week with high pressure in charge.

It can be tricky sometimes for Oldham weather expert Jon Baylis to forecast the weather when high pressure is in charge, especially this time of the year with still relatively cool mornings and depending on the wind direction, cloud can get trapped under a high and be really stubborn to clear.

But with the setup this week and also a breeze/strong wind to break any cloud up, plus humidity levels relatively low, it looks like this high pressure is going to deliver a lot of sunshine.

This sunshine is now quite strong, but still only bringing medium UV levels for a few hours around lunchtime, but the sun is now as strong as early-September.

Monday was disappointing this week, but that wasn’t due to cloud getting stuck under a high pressure, that was due to a weather-front to our northwest being further southeast than expected, and the cloud was thick enough, so it didn’t slowly thin until later in the day.

Rain. When will it rain next?

The answer to that is, it looks like it could well be close to a couple of weeks before we see the return to unsettled conditions and spells of wind and rain.

The high pressure that’s over us at the moment will slip away, but only to be replaced by another one and that high is expected to hang around into next week and our weather will have an omega block, which means, as per diagram below, a very stubborn pattern to shift.

Now if you have this block with a cloudy-high, you then end up with anticyclonic gloom which can lead to very dank and boring weather days.

But this time the forecast suggests that it will be days of sunshine instead.

The high pressure also means settled weather which means dry weather.

It’s pretty much getting to the time now, after a dry February, and the driest March for 60 years across parts of the UK, where we need to water the gardens.

This dry start to spring is not unusual, but if we have a relatively dry remainder of spring then we only need a dry and hot at times, summer to lead to really dry conditions across the UK and possibly a drought.

But it is the UK after all. So it’s more likely to become wetter-than-average once again.

What late-spring and summer brings? Nobody knows.

Has the risk of frost passed? Not quite.

With clear skies and, at times, winds easing overnight, there will be some pockets of frost, mostly a ground-frost with surface temperatures down to -1°C.

So water the gardens in the morning if you can.

Here's Jon's latest in-depth forecast:

Today (Thursday): One of the warmest days of the week, especially the further west you are.

Plenty of sunshine after a cool start but it will be very windy at times, especially gusty on the western side of the Pennines. 

Max 19°C Min 3°C Max Gusts 35mph.

Friday: More of the same. Sunny and warm but feeling it more so if you’re sheltered from the gusty wind.

High diurnal values. 

Max 20°C Min 2°C Wind Gusts 30mph.

Weekend: Cooler but still plenty of sunshine.

Saturday: Slightly cooler air from the northeast but still a great day with wall-to-wall sunshine expected.

Feeling cool in the neverending breeze.

Ground-frost for most overnight. 

Max 15°C Min 0°C Wind Gusts 25mph.

Sunday: Sunny and pleasant if you can find some shelter.

Hopefully the wind will begin to ease a little.

Dry and warm at times. Cold overnight.

Max 16°C Min 1°C Wind Gusts 20mph.

Outlook: It looks like high pressure stays in charge and winds will not be as strong as this week so feeling warmer as temperatures recover to the late-teens again.

Plenty of sunshine and dry conditions.

Cool nights with still some ground-frosts.

UV levels up to 4.

Follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky for the latest forecasts and warnings.

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