Proteas vulnerable against 3-1 England

TEST matches between England and South Africa are usually feisty affairs and the latest batch promise to be no different.

Two proud cricketing nations clash in the first match of a four-Test series at Durban on Boxing Day and it will be fascinating to see how both react from chastening experiences on their most recent outings.

South Africa were thumped 3-0 on the spin-friendly wickets of India, while England battled hard before succumbing 2-0 to Pakistan on slow, turning pitches in the Middle East.

Of the pair, England competed more strongly. For long periods of the three matches against Pakistan, they had a firm foothold – indeed, they came within an ace of winning the first Test – only to surrender the initiative with one bad session.

South Africa’s batsmen were all at sea against the Indian spinners and struggled to reach 200 on several occasions. Confidence will be key when the first Test starts and I reckon England could hold the edge in this department.

Certainly the current discrepancy in the odds - the home side are 8-11 to win the series while England are 3-1 - makes little sense to me, especially given the Proteas’ injury concerns.

They will be without fast bowler Vernon Philander for the first two Tests, while the world’s best fast bowler, Dale Steyn, has still to show he has fully recovered from a deep-seated groin injury.

Even if, as expected, Steyn does make the gig, the chances are he will be some way off his usual high standards. All this could place a huge burden on Morne Morkel, whose raw talent has never been in doubt, but who has displayed – at least to this viewer’s eyes - a fragile temperament.

Then there is the issue of opening batsmen. South Africa have never successfully replaced Graeme Smith – just as England are still looking out for the successor to Andrew Strauss.

Both top orders look vulnerable and I can envisage James Anderson – if he is passed fit – and Stuart Broad wreaking havoc against any two of Dean Elgar, Temba Bavuma and Stiaan van Zyl.

South Africa still boast world-class performers in skipper Hashim Amla and AB De Villiers, but both could face early exposure to the new ball and may be vulnerable.

I expect the resurgent Broad to be England’s leading wicket-taker on bouncy pitches which will suit, while Alastair Cook loves to pull and cut and will be in his element.


RECOMMENDATIONS: England to win series, 3-1 (general); Alastair Cook to be top England run scorer, 11-4 (general); Stuart Broad to be leading England wicket-taker, 2-1 Bet365).