BREXIT: the great debate

KEITH KENNEDY

GARVIN Crabtree, of Garvin Print on Shaw Road, Oldham, said: "I've been reading the reports about how some voters are now completely back-tracking about the EU.
They feel they are not going to get what they were promised by politicians, such as £350 million a week for the NHS and controls on immigration. Many voters feel they were conned and were not given the information required to make an informed decision. Some have now signed petitions for a second referendum.

"I think people were conned - but I can't see another referendum being held. You can't keep holding one referendum after another until you get a different result. But it is worrying that people are left with something they feel they did vote for.

"I've just returned from a holiday in America. While we were over there, the EU referendum was a big talking-point. When people realised we were from England, they wanted to know what it was all about."

However he added: "I don't think this referendum decision need become a disaster. Things will settle. I remember there were predictions of disaster when Britain did not join the Euro - but nothing like that happened."


Kath Soliman, chief executive of Oldham Training Centre on Lees Road said: "We are unsure of the impact at this stage but do have some concerns about leaving the EU.
"Oldham Training Centre is funded by the Government, the Skills Funding Agency, which is co-funded by European Social Funding (ESF). Last year approximately £300 million went to training providers and colleges in the UK.

"The funding covers apprenticeships, employability and skills training provision. The European Commission has supported the development of skills and initiatives which supported thousands of training courses, with a pledge to train more than 200,000 teachers. I do wonder how this will also affect the Government's apprenticeship reforms being introduced and the levy for larger companies now.

"Ninety per cent of our engineering apprentices work for local manufacturing companies. They are concerned about their own industry and on how leaving the EU might affect their job and future career prospects.

"It is too early to predict the knock-on effect of this outcome, however I am optimistic that it will stabilise because the UK does have a strong economy."


Tom Pennington-Brookfield, finance director at Derker-based Innovative Technology, said: "I believe in democracy and, while I can question what has led us to this point, the decision has been done democratically. So it is now up to us to accept and support this decision.
"In the long term I do not believe it will have much impact. However we have seen the short-term impact of an immediate weakening of sterling versus the dollar. This will impact on UK companies' ability to invest in dollar-based jurisdictions such as China and the Americas.

"It will mean short-term inflation because imported goods and oil will become more expensive. This could cause a contraction in spending, which is also sentiment-driven. Given how delicate the economy is, this alone could cause recession.

"I am also concerned that until policies on immigration are decided it will make Europeans less likely to come to the UK.

"It will not affect our business, in terms of trading, however it may affect how we trade. For example, we may have to distribute from a European location to our European customers rather than from Oldham, as we do at present. My biggest concern is the uncertainty it creates because this effects investment decisions.


Keith Kennedy is a partner at Pearson Solicitors and Financial Advisers. He heads the firm's corporate and commercial department.
He said: " Predictions about the UK economy are difficult to call. The Government will have two years to negotiate our departure. This will lead to uncertainty and may affect both consumer and business confidence. That could be exacerbated if the two-year period is prolonged - and many expect the negotiations could take longer. Some even think it could take up to 10 years."

"The Government will also have to renegotiate trade contracts. This could also take a long time and, in the interim, foreign investors are likely to be nervous about investing into the UK. Domestic projects with foreign investment could therefore stall, be delayed or be cancelled.

On property issues, Mr Kennedy said laws relating to the buying and selling of property and land are unlikely to be affected by Brexit. However developers should be prepared to accept that UK property might be less appealing as an investment to foreign businesses.

Regarding employment law, he said UK law incorporates many EU employment laws and regulations affecting employees, employers and the workplace. It is not clear whether if or how the Government will change these but some changes are inevitable after the Brexit takes legal effect.

On recruiting and keeping staff, he said: "Brexit would do away with EU workers' right to free movement. This will restrict the ability of businesses to recruit EU nationals, with or without skills, to work in the UK.

Freedom

"Without workers' freedom of movement, there will be a reduced pool of employees in the UK As a consequence, salaries will probably rise. This could hit service industries as well as the construction industry, who have relied heavily on EU workers. So there will have to be a keen focus on staff training and the training of future staff.

On trade tariffs. Mr Kennedy said: "The EU might introduce trade tariffs and these in themselves could seriously affect the trading position of businesses with import/export business in Europe.

Mr Kennedy emphasised: "There are so many aspects to Brexit. It will mean a lot of work for politicians, lawyers, business leaders and courts. Whether it is worth all that effort and upheaval, only time will tell."


REGIONAL VOICES AND ISSUES - THE NORTH

Clive Memmott, chief executive at Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce, said: "While a majority of our members will be disappointed with this result, the public has made its views clear.
"It is vital that the Government and the wider electorate accept this result and work together through the uncertainty. The increased work that will be required by government over the next five years or more must not come at the expense of running the country and must not be hindered by inflamed political tensions.

"The nature of the debate throughout the referendum has been distracting and mainly unproductive. There must now be a healing process on both sides as we look to move forward.

"The focus in the first instance must be to limit uncertainty and instability, and send clear messages as to the path ahead. Government has a clear mandate for change from voters, but should take as much time as needed to deliver these changes with minimum detriment to the economy, businesses and the livelihoods of the public."

The chamber's website explains more about the UK's options at www.gmccEUref.co.uk


Ed Cox, director of think-tank IPPR North, said: "The people have spoken but in the north they have shouted. The signs of malaise with the Westminster elite have been there for some time.
"Whatever you believe about the Northern Powerhouse, few people can deny that our trading relationships with our EU partners - soon to be our former EU partners - matter much more to northern businesses than they do to the City of London.

"We need to define the kind of economy we want to become. Our obsession with big cities and aggregate growth must take a new turn and wake up to the cries of those on the margins who are busy manufacturing the goods we will now struggle harder to sell overseas."

Looking ahead, he said: "Calls for an east-west freight supercorridor linking Atlantic shipping at Liverpool with the European continent via Hull, and broader investment in international connectivity, should grow louder. We need a global north now like never before.

"Both major political parties must reinvent themselves from the bottom up with more plural local political systems that bring people closer to power. The greatest challenges ahead are social issues. Regions, cities and communities stand more divided than ever in living memory.

Alexandra Jones, chief executive of Centre for Cities think-tank, said: "There are big questions about how Brexit will affect cities which have historically relied on EU funding to strengthen their economies, as well as places which have been able to attract international jobs and investment partly due to the UK's membership of the Single Market.
"There is also a serious risk that the Government's devolution agenda will come to a standstill, with the political focus likely to shift to moving powers from Brussels to Westminster, rather than empowering UK cities to grow their economies.Tt's vital that political leaders seek to provide as much clarity and certainty on these issues as possible,"