MP McMahon: "It is highly likely the virus will be with us well into next year"

Date published: 14 August 2020


Oldham West and Royton MP Jim McMahon has written a blog on the importance of preventing a local lockdown in Oldham over the coming week.

Subjects covered include the sacrifices all Oldhamers are making, unemployment rising, data transparency, contact with council officials and Mayor Greater Manchester Andy Burnham, and what the short-term future may hold.

Mr McMahon said: "Since the lockdown was introduced in March, people across Oldham have made some incredible sacrifices and made some incredibly important changes to our behaviour.

"Not seeing family and friends has been hard, not enjoying the things we usually enjoy is not easy, but it has been so important and for this hard work we must all thank each other.

"Likewise we can never thank the frontline key workers who have put themselves at risk, in our shops, running our transport system, in our care homes, and our doctors, nurses and support staff across the healthcare system, enough.

"They have truly shown the best of us over the last five months.

"The latest Covid-19 data shows an increase from the already worrying 57.8% to 107.5% per 100,000.

"As a local MP I have been supporting hundreds of constituents and businesses employing thousands of people, I have seen first-hand the impact restrictions have had on our economy.

"In the Oldham West and Royton constituency alone unemployment has almost doubled, rising from 3,418 in February to 6,740 in July.

"As of 30th June, 21% of all workers (13,700 in total) were placed on furlough, with 79% of self-employed people (3,800) forced to apply for government support.

"But even with this many people have fallen through the cracks, for instance those who had to self-isolate with the only safety net being Statutory Sick Pay of £95 a week, and some not even able to claim this, for instance if they do not earn enough or if they work less than 16 hours a week.

"And so, any lockdown is in the context of an already fragile local economy, thousands impacted by the inability to work, and businesses on the verge of going under.

"These are serious decisions with very real consequences for every household.

"We have to beat this together.

"It will need collective action but firm personal responsibility.

"None of us can be blind to the routine breaching of the rules which are in place to support us all.

"It only takes a bus or tram journey to see people routinely not wearing a face covering, a visit to the supermarket, or even more likely the local convenience shop or takeaway, or a visit to a local bar or restaurant with members from difficult households.

"Though we are getting to a stage where the majority are observing, we must be honest and say that a significant number are still flouting the rules.

"The same is true of household visits, including outside in the garden, and just nipping in for a few minutes, meeting up with family and friends, and the list goes on.

"Too often the reason is explained away, sometimes with an imaginative interpretation of what a ‘bubble’ is.

"And the early days of the pandemic I am sure all of us were washing hands for the 20 seconds, regularly applying alcohol gel and minimising how often we touch surfaces and our face.

"As time goes on that urgency becomes lessened and old habits kick back in.

"Many will make significant sacrifices, and I’ve heard heart-breaking stories which drive this home, but sometimes the rules aren’t followed, or perhaps its human nature to want to break out after so long being placed under restrictions.

"The urge to see family and friends, to get back to normal, they are all understandable.

"But the truth is that it makes us weaker in fighting the virus, and ultimately in saving lives.

"There is also a risk, that in an effort to be transparent with data, recent localised infection rates are published by ward.

"This shouldn’t allow any of us to think that, even in areas with current low positive test results being shown, we are not at risk.

"It must be remembered that the testing approach changes over time, for instance early on much was done in hospitals, but not in the community.

"Now localised testing is actively targeting those who are considered high risk, many because of the frontline, customer facing or intensive work they do.

"On top of this the decision to test whole households including those not displaying symptoms (Asymptomatic), though the right approach in identifying the virus, creates higher results particularly with larger, sometime multi-generational households, where the virus can be picked up at work and spread at home.

"We also need to be honest and accept that far too many do not have the financial safety net to self-isolate, when the best that’s on offer from government doesn’t even cover the rent, let alone other bills and actually putting food on the table.

"It is highly likely the virus will be with us well into next year, from its outbreak to its eventual defeat once a vaccine is found, how it spreads and where it spikes will change.

"What we must see is action to reduce the risk at every opportunity.

"For that we need government to get a clear plan in place, but whatever government’s many failings, we cannot defer our own responsibility.

"I have made contact with Oldham Council, the Greater Manchester Combined Authority and the Mayor and I have asked that given we are now months into the crisis we must see robust, consistent and endured enforcement across supermarkets and local shops, in hospitality, and on public transport.

"I am pleased that today confirmation has been given that enhanced inspections and enforcement will take place on Metrolink and in the bus station too.

"It's also been good to see that Oldham Council have been out in Oldham town centre today handing out face coverings, giving advice to residents, and ensuring that businesses are all doing their bit to keep us safe and prevent the need for any further restrictions.

"On top of the new visual presence of Social Distancing

"Marshals, the council have also started door-to-door testing in certain areas of the borough this morning.

"I expect further details of inspection and enforcement in other places will follow.

"I’ve also asked that we push forward with working up plans to carry out workplace testing in high risk sectors.

"One statistic which should out for me was that 10% of those infected are responsible for 80% of transmission, you probably have heard of the term ‘super-spreaders’ before, and so having a system in place to track fully is critical.

"And importantly it must be remembered that it is the case that many who are carrying the virus do not display symptoms, or if they do often very mild symptoms.

"I’ve also suggested that although the government has failed to come forward with a robust system to capture contact tracing details in bars and restaurants, let alone basic minimum standards which are enforced.

"That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be looking at creating our own system in Greater Manchester, not least of all to ensure that personal data is handled in compliance with the law, but most importantly so that any spikes can be dealt with swiftly.

"I do not support the approach taken in other places where the government has intervened to lockdown whole council areas.

"Like many places Oldham borough is not a single place, but a collection of seven towns. A boroughwide lockdown not just has the potential to close down businesses, and with that almost certain job losses, in areas with few recent positive test results, but it also dilutes the available resources to fully target areas which are at risk with the necessary support.

"A boroughwide approach also misses that people do not see the local government administrative boundaries; it is more important as to their workplaces, places of education, where they shop, where they socialise and who they then interact with as a result.

"With a borough which stretches from Manchester to West Yorkshire, an outbreak on the Manchester border would more likely impact more on its adjourning neighbourhoods outside the borough than another district miles away on the opposite side of the borough.

"This was part of the rationale for Greater Manchester wide restrictions we are currently subject to.

"The truth is that both are a blunt tool, and any intervention must be localised, targeted and resourced properly.

"Vitally it must be supported by evidence.

"Please stay safe, and as always if you need support and are not sure where to go, my office is here to help.

"I’ve also provided helpful links to support and advice on my website which you might find useful."


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