What could happen next with Brexit as the Prime Minister wins vote of confidence in her government?

Date published: 17 January 2019


Prime Minister Theresa May has survived a motion of no confidence in her government.

Both of Oldham’s MPs backed the Labour motion to remove the government from power, but the opposition lost the vote by 325 to 306.

That’s despite rebel Tory MPs and the DUP voting against the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal on Tuesday night, in what was the biggest defeat for a sitting government in history.

But Mrs May was given the backing of parliament by just 19 votes, as Jeremy Corbyn sought to trigger a general election.

Oldham East and Saddleworth MP Debbie Abrahams and Oldham West and Royton member Jim McMahon both backed the Labour motion – but it wasn’t enough to oust the government.

BREXIT: WHAT HAPPENS NOW?

With Theresa May’s Brexit deal voted down on Tuesday, but the government winning a vote of confidence on Wednesday, there are several ways forward for the impasse in the House of Commons over the UK’s exit from the EU.

MPs narrowly voted on Wednesday night to keep the current government

NO DEAL BREXIT

If no solution can be reached between MPs before 29 March, then the UK will leave the EU with no deal.

Having triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, EU law says its treaties will no longer apply to the UK after the two-year period of negotiation is over.

While MPs might not support a no-deal Brexit, they have to prove there is a majority in the House of Commons backing an alternative outcome.

Simply proving there is no majority for no deal is not enough to prevent it.

The UK could revoke Article 50, which would prevent a no deal scenario – after the European Court ruled the UK could take that course of action without consulting the other 27 EU countries.

But it is extremely unlikely the House of Commons will do that without either another referendum or a general election.

MPS VOTE AGAIN

The government could try to get the deal through the House of Commons once more, sticking close to what had been negotiated by Mrs May in the run up to Christmas.

The Prime Minister will hold talks with senior politicians from all parties on ways to move forward – and it could involve discussions on how to amend the deal to make it more satisfactory.

That would still need approval from the EU and then there would have to be another vote in Parliament before 29 March.

It is generally protocol that MPs are not asked to reconsider the same bill twice in a single session of Parliament – unless the will of Parliament has changed.

In exceptional circumstances, the Speaker could decide to allow a second debate.

RE-OPEN NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE EU

There could be a complete overhaul of the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU and an entirely new deal is proposed.

This would probably need an extension to Article 50, should the EU agree to open negotiations again.

The UK would then follow the same process, as the new deal would have to be put before Parliament.

Should the EU refuse to negotiate, the UK would have to chose another course of action.

ANOTHER REFERENDUM

If there is no way to solve the impasse, then the government could decide to put the question back to the country.

This would also need an extension to Article 50, as it is now too late for the UK to hold a referendum before the 29 March deadline.

Another vote, though, would present further problems: It would leave those who originally voted Leave and backed any form of Brexit feeling like their views are not being listened to, especially if a Remain vote were to win.

Equally, a second Leave victory could force the government’s hand into a hard or no deal Brexit, something a majority of MPs do not back.

The UK is due to leave the EU on 29 March
The UK is due to leave the EU on 29 March

ANOTHER NO CONFIDENCE VOTE

Labour could table another motion of no confidence in the government

If a majority of MPs vote for the motion – in an outcome that would be the reverse of Wednesday evening’s vote – then it begins a 14-day process.

In that time, if the House cannot win a new vote of confidence, an early general election is triggered.

A GENERAL ELECTION

Jeremy Corbyn failed in his bid to force a General Election through a vote of no confidence in the government, but the Prime Minister could decide it is the only way to find a solution and give the winning party a mandate to negotiate a deal and get it through the Commons.

Again, this would need an extension to Article 50 – as an election cannot take place before 29 March.

Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, the Prime Minister cannot call an election – but she could ask MPs to vote for an early election.

It would then go ahead if two thirds of the House backed the move.

It may also see the country elect a new Prime Minister, as Mrs May has previously told her party should would stand aside as Tory leader at the next general election.

REMAIN IN THE EU

The Prime Minister could decide to revoke Article 50 and give the EU notice that the UK no longer intends to leave.

Britain does not need to seek approval from the other 27 EU countries.

This seems to be an unlikely course of action, with both the government and the opposition saying they are committed to delivering Brexit.

It may need another referendum or an early general election before a government were to decide to revoke Article 50.

A NEW PRIME MINISTER

Should Mrs May decide that she cannot lead the country out of the current situation, she could choose to stand aside.

This would trigger a Conservative leadership campaign and would result in the party appointing a new leader – and the country getting a new Prime Minister.

One of the other Brexit options would then need to happen, but under a different Tory leader.